The Hunt for Red November
There’s a distinct possibility Republicans could capture control of the Maine Legislature in 2026. All the GOP has to do is not be stupid.
That’s a big ask, given the history of the state Republican Party. There are currently more gubernatorial candidates than IQ points in the GOP field.
Nevertheless, Maine’s electoral map favors the pachyderm party. There are barely a handful of safe Democratic seats in the entire 2nd Congressional District. That alone gives Republicans a sizable lead in the race to achieve majorities in the state House and Senate. While Democrats enjoy solid support in much of the liberal 1st District, there are enough swing districts to tip the scales in the GOP’s favor for the first time since 2010, when the Tea Party wave swept numerous utterly unqualified candidates into office. Outside of that anomaly, Republicans have enjoyed just a couple brief intervals of control of the state Senate, in 2014 and 2016 (but because of Democratic majorities in the House, they lacked the overall numbers to pick constitutional officers and enjoy other perks of being in charge).
So, it’s been a long time since anybody gave a damn about what Republicans thought about major legislative issues. But that could change after November.
Currently, Democrats have a one-seat majority in the 151-member House with two vacancies that will likely soon be filled by one Dem and one GOP. The Democrats’ shaky edge is boosted by three independents who tend to vote with the donkey party. So, a Republican takeover isn’t that far-fetched. In the 35-member Senate, the Dems have a six-seat edge, which will be tougher but not impossible for the GOP to overcome.
For instance, Sen. Troy Jackson, a Democrat, has clung to his seat for four terms in a red-leaning district in Aroostook County. But Jackson is running for governor, and the Dems concede they have no strong candidate to replace him.
Other shaky Senate Democratic districts include the York County seat held by Mark Lawrence, who’s term-limited out. The area has been trending more Republican in recent years. Timothy Nangle of Windham represents a district in the Lakes Region west of Greater Portland. He’s considered vulnerable, as GOP voter registrations in the ’burbs increase. Mike Tipping is an ultra-lefty who represents a sprawling district that ranges from liberal Orono to the deep-red hinterlands. He’s long been a conservative target, and this might be the year right-wingers finally get their wish to turn him out of office.
Republicans have recently made some strides in improving their candidate recruitment efforts, by which I mean they’re running fewer nutcases. But if past GOP slates are any indication, hiding among the more rational campaigners, there’ll likely be a scattering of election-deniers, anti-vaxxers and neo-Nazis, extremists who’ll cost Republicans a winnable seat or two.
As always, abortion is going to be a serious wedge issue. If national Republicans succeed in outlawing drugs such as mifepristone and misoprostol used for medication-assisted abortions, it will energize the Democratic base and increase turnout.
On the other hand, the Republican kook kaucus will be aided by their party’s emphasis on banning transgender girls from competing on girls’ high school sports teams or using bathrooms and locker rooms that don’t align with their birth gender. A possible referendum to change Maine civil rights law to conform with President Trump’s views on that issue may also boost the prospects of the local GOP.
Ah yes, Trump. I’m glad you (actually, me) mentioned him. His looming presence is likely to be a factor in close legislative races, although exactly how it’ll sway the outcome remains to be seen. If the economy is perceived as solid and the U.S. isn’t invading Mexico, Colombia or Greenland, Trumpism might prove to be a positive for Republican legislative candidates. But if inflation booms, measles is epidemic, ICE keeps killing people and the Marines are bogged down in some South American jungle, those same candidates are going to be tempted to sidle away from their party’s standard bearer and pretend they’re only focused on Maine issues.
That could well be a deciding factor in more than a few races, and if Trump is particularly unhinged, it might cost Republicans their best shot in years at taking control of the Legislature.
One more issue: How will the Democrats campaign?
They could run against Trump without offering any alternative platform. That hasn’t worked well in the past (hello, Kamala Harris).
Or they could propose a comprehensive program to address the issues that voters are most concerned with. There are three possibilities there.
One, the usual cliches and buzzwords the donkey party traditionally employs when it’s pretending to deal with politically touchy subjects. Two, the Mamdani-Platner approach, which offers enticing, although often implausible, populist solutions. Three (and least likely), the Democrats could develop a realistic agenda that might actually accomplish something.
Yeah, it looks like a good year for GOP legislative candidates.
Pessimistic comments may be e-mailed to aldiamon@herniahill.net. Optimistic comments can be kept to yourself.
